Ukraine-Russia Peace Agreement Simulator

1

Building the Draft Agreement (Drag Articles)

The panel “Available Negotiation Articles” contains 20 negotiation items divided into 4 categories. To start drafting a peace agreement, select or drag items into the “Peace Agreement Draft" panel in the center.

As items are added to the “Peace Agreement Draft” panel, stakeholders’ positions are displayed below each item using indicators: green checkmarks (support), red crosses (opposition), and yellow question marks (willingness to negotiate).

2

Analyzing the Agreement

The “Negotiation Analysis” panel visualizes and tracks satisfaction (green), negotiability (blue) scores, and minimum acceptable threshold (red line) for Ukraine, Russia, the USA, and the Europe.

Aim to maintain all stakeholder satisfaction above the red threshold to avoid failed negotiations. Identify promising negotiation paths by focusing on areas where stakeholders show both acceptable satisfaction and high negotiability.

3

Optimizing the Agreement

If stakeholder satisfaction drops below the minimum threshold or improvement is needed, use the optimization feature. Click the “Optimize Draft” button below the radar chart. The tool will highlight items in yellow that offer the best potential for enhancing agreement stability.

Experiment with substituting items in the “Peace Agreement Draft” panel, prioritizing combinations that maintain satisfaction above critical threshold while maximizing negotiation flexibility.

See below examples of possible peace agreement drafts:

Available Negotiation Articles

Territory and Sovereignty

  • 1-Returning Ukrainian occupied portions of Kursk region
  • 2-Maintaining Russian control over all occupied territories as of 2025
  • 3-Maintaining Russian control over Zaporizhzhia and Kherson and territories occupied before 2022 (Crimea and parts of the DNR/LNR)
  • 4-Ensuring international recognition of occupied territories as Russian territory

Security Arrangements

  • 5-Ukraine renouncing its ambitions to join NATO
  • 6-Granting Ukraine NATO membership
  • 7-Legally binding bilateral defense agreements between Western nations and Ukraine
  • 8-Imposing restrictions on Ukraine's military capabilities, including limits on troop numbers, missile systems, and Western-supplied weapons
  • 9-Developing Ukrainian military-industrial complex and defense industry
  • 10-Keeping Ukrainian Army self-sufficient and technologically advanced, fully interoperable with NATO
  • 11-Considering peacekeeping forces, demilitarized zones to maintain post-conflict stability

Economic Conditions

  • 12-Removal or easing of Western sanctions that have constrained Russia's economy
  • 13-Keeping Western sanctions tight not to allow Russia rebuild its economy and improve miltech
  • 14-Releasing Russian frozen assets, returning them to Russia
  • 15-Using Russian frozen assets to rebuild Ukraine
  • 16-Using Ukraine's gas transit infrastructure for European energy supplies from Russia
  • 17-Allowing Western companies to use Ukrainain resources as raw materials

Justice and Accountability

  • 18-Demanding accountability for Russian war crimes, including trials for those responsible for atrocities and crimes against humanity
  • 19- Advocating for the safe return of forcibly deported Ukrainians, including kidnapped children
  • 20-Having elections in Ukraine before peace/ceasefire settlement

Peace Agreement Draft

Territory and Sovereignty

    Security Arrangement

      Economic Conditions

        Justice and Accountability

          Negotiation Analysis

          Legend:

          • Satisfaction: Green area representing overall satisfaction.
          • Negotiability: Blue area representing negotiability scores.
          • Minimum Acceptable Threshold: Red dashed line indicating the minimum acceptable level.